Comments on A mathematician at risk: How getting vaccinated protects others

Another factor not included in this model that wou...

2009-11-01T18:49:01.505-08:00

Another factor not included in this model that would weigh on the discussion is any negative effect of the vaccine.

Great comment on the best option being that everyone else gets the vaccine but you. Ha ha!

alas it is in the numbers where the model shouldn&...

2009-10-28T22:22:45.041-07:00

alas it is in the numbers where the model shouldn't be trusted. I have an inkling that you may be right that 75% is big enough to say that the other 25% don't have to worry that much. But I really don't have a good reason to believe that.

That said, the vaccine is certainly not 100% effective (another flaw in my model). I've heard numbers ranging from 90% to 35%. Vaccine efficacy is not something that I know anything about.

What's really interesting is how this model ca...

2009-10-28T21:43:14.461-07:00

What's really interesting is how this model can be used not only to encourage vaccination, but also give people an excuse not to get vaccinated. I actually saw a tweet from someone who said they wanted everyone else to get vaccinated, but not themselves. People are very divided on the vaccination issue, with some saying they absolutely will not get vaccinated, while others are standing out in freezing rain for hours to receive the vaccine. Assuming vaccination is 100% effective, your model gives comfort to those who don't want to get vaccinated because they can rely on reduced prevalence of the virus. It looks like the infection risk drops to almost 0% once around 74 people are vaccinated. Can this be extrapolated out to say that if 74% of the population gets vaccinated, the risk of an unvaccinated individual getting infection is also near 0%?